Why Is It So Hard to Forecast for Gifts in Wills?

Forecasting Gifts in Wills (GIW) income is one of the most uncomfortable lines in an NFP budget for any CFO. It behaves nothing like regular giving or appeals, yet for many organisations it is often one of the largest revenue streams, allowing programs and services that transform lives.

There are two key components to consider when planning:

1.      Bequests from estates currently under administration, and;

2.      Bequests you anticipate being included in the future (that is, your Bequestor pipeline).

 Understanding why this income is so unpredictable can help charities manage expectations and plan effectively.

 

The Long Horizon of Bequests

Unlike most other forms of fundraising, the work undertaken by a Gifts in Wills team today will often not come to fruition for a decade or more. Bequests only materialise after a donor has passed away, and even then, the relationship building, stewardship and encouragement of testamentary giving you have invested in now may not bear fruit.

 This is the inherent nature of legacy fundraising. Outcomes are delayed, uncertain, and largely beyond the charity’s direct control.

 Even once a charity is notified that it has been included in a Will, the income itself may still take years to be received. The period between a donor’s passing and final distribution can range from months to several years. Administration timeframes are influenced by a range of factors, including the nature of the assets, the complexity of the estate, and the priorities, experience and capacity of the executors and solicitors involved.

 

Why GIW income is harder to control

Compared with other fundraising streams, your fundraising teams have far less levers to pull in the immediate:

  • Most charities receive a small number of bequests annually, but at high average value (around $135,000), so a small change in volume has an outsized impact on the bottom line.

  • A very small proportion of gifts (for example, those over $500,000) can make up the majority of total GIW income, meaning one unusually large estate – or the absence of one – can dramatically skew results. For most charities, only 7% of your bequests account for more than 50% of total GIW income.

  • Work done now on inspiring and stewarding bequestors builds a pipeline, but it does not behave like a “normal” pipeline where you can predict conversion and timing with confidence.

The moving parts that break your forecast

Several practical realities make forecasting particularly difficult for GIW:

Timing variability

  • The delay between a bequestor passing away and final payment can range from months to years, depending on the executor, asset mix and complexity of the estate.

  • About one in eight estates may encounter legal complexity (e.g. family provision claims, executor issues), which can dramatically impact what a charity will receive.

Visibility gaps

  • Only around one third of bequests typically come from confirmed bequestors; for roughly two thirds, you don’t know to expect the gift until the executor or solicitor contacts you.

  • Notifications are inconsistent: sometimes a cheque simply arrives without prior warning, and roughly a third of your GIW income comes from estates you were unaware of 90 days earlier.

Limited control over process

  • Your charity can request information, ask for interim distributions and follow up, but you are largely at the mercy of the executor’s priorities and their solicitor’s workload.

  • Some executors or solicitors are slow or reluctant to share detail; while you are entitled to estate documents via the courts, accessing them takes time, money and expertise.

Changing asset values

  • Early figures are rarely final: property can sell for much less than expected, markets move, liabilities emerge and occasionally new assets are discovered mid‑process.

Each of these factors erodes the reliability of any point‑in‑time estimate.

Smarter forecasting approaches for finance teams

There is no way to remove these challenges from GIW forecasting, but there are a few things for charity finance teams to keep in mind.

Treat the bequestor pipeline cautiously

  • The pool of living supporters who say they will leave a gift is strategically important, but conversion rates vary widely between charities. Charities should be cautious in looking to these figures for any indication about immediate income.

  • Keeping accurate records and retaining historical data is key if you want to rely on your pipeline. Have a serious conversation with anyone who wants to delete or archive old donor records as it will impact Gifts in Wills forecasting.

De‑emphasise outlier gifts in modelling

  • Very large historic gifts (e.g. over $500,000) can distort trend analysis; consider discounting or excluding roughly the top 10% by value when building future projections.

  • Forecast using a rolling average (5 years is good, 7-10 years is better) to help smooth out any lumpiness or volatility in the data.

Build in realistic seasonality, not certainty

  • Many charities see a slight uptick in GIW funds paid around June, November and December, which can help with intra‑year phasing but should not be treated as guaranteed.

Invest in estate administration capability

  • A team member trained in estate administration can read estate accounts, understand probate timelines, anticipate legal risks and identify when interim or final payments are realistically likely.

  • This capability improves both forecasting, and boosts GIW income through ensuring taxes and fees are correctly handled.

Why finance understanding matters

There is no easy solution: forecasting GIW will always involve uncertainty, nuance and a higher tolerance for variance than other income lines. But when CFOs and finance teams understand the structural reasons behind that volatility, they can set more realistic expectations, design budgets with appropriate buffers and support their GIW colleagues rather than expecting impossible precision.

Crucially, charities need to invest not only in GIW acquisition, but also in estate administration which directly affects timing, risk and value. Bequest Assist are experts in estate administration and offer training for charity GIW teams and estate administration outsourcing for charities across Australia. If you think that our services may be of assistance, please be in touch.



- Morgan Koegel, Managing Director, Bequest Assist
- Bethan Hazell, Gifts in Wills & Estates Manager at Peter MacCallum Cancer Foundation

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